葛老對於股市與債市關係之見解

Greenspan told Bloomberg about U.S. stocks on May 4 2012


心得摘要

• 目前股市估值非常便宜，因為股票之風險溢酬來到高檔因為市場利率水準來到歷史新低
• 以 JP Morgan為例，風險溢酬來到50年來新高；隨著盈餘成長，股價僅有向上反應一途
• 市場對於央行的股市掁興方案之效益低估。
• 因為股票市值形同金融市場之抵壓品，其決定了債券持有人之債券的品質及至距債券違約之緩衝程度；股票市場愈高表示相對的債券品質愈高。

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan went from enjoying fawning adulation and a reputation as "the best central banker to ever live" to being named one of the 25 people most responsible for the financial crisis.

Take his advice as you wish.

Here, though, is what Greenspan told Bloomberg about U.S. stocks yesterday:

Well, stocks are very cheap. All you have to do is look at the equity premium. The best estimate of the equity premium, as best as I can judge, is JPMorgan's. And that's at the highest level in 50 years. And that essentially means that, with earnings still moving up -- as they have until very recently -- when you run up against a very high equity premium ... there is no place for earnings to grow except into stock prices.

And the point that I've been making recently is that I think we are underestimating the extent of equity stimulus, as distinct from fiscal stimulus, in driving this economy. ...

We don't recognize how important the equity markets are in a market economy. We lost, globally during the crash, $35 trillion in listed corporation value. And equity is the collateral of the financial system. It's not only the equity amounts, but it's also the fact that where equity prices are essentially tells the bondholder how much buffer there is between what he holds and bankruptcy. The bigger the market value increase in equity, the greater the quality, other things equal, of what bonds are.